Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 1.989866 2.105211 2.226322 2.363420 2.514856 2.677652 2.866747
2025-08-31 1.820321 1.979987 2.155589 2.364666 2.608999 2.888292 3.235842
2025-09-07 1.719042 1.905327 2.116850 2.377917 2.695965 3.077066 3.578328
2025-09-14 1.617808 1.817602 2.049809 2.344201 2.714466 3.174975 3.808850
2025-09-21 1.533361 1.741577 1.988177 2.307812 2.720762 3.251145 4.011361
2025-09-28 1.458785 1.671755 1.927949 2.266253 2.713469 3.304226 4.182337
2025-10-05 1.428573 1.653583 1.929058 2.300632 2.805115 3.494148 4.564936
2025-10-12 1.402428 1.638262 1.931708 2.335480 2.897822 3.691343 4.981101
2025-10-19 1.375927 1.620581 1.929493 2.362372 2.979740 3.878420 5.405031
2025-10-26 1.337121 1.584975 1.901530 2.351565 3.005754 3.982587 5.704844
2025-11-02 1.301009 1.551146 1.873973 2.339065 3.027281 4.080070 6.004765
2025-11-09 1.261696 1.511467 1.836612 2.310257 3.021710 4.132782 6.229556
2025-11-16 1.224619 1.474021 1.801487 2.283852 3.019516 4.193149 6.483399
2025-11-23 1.199526 1.451676 1.786040 2.284965 3.059598 4.327210 6.904308
2025-11-30 1.180035 1.436023 1.778935 2.297494 3.117825 4.497123 7.430501
2025-12-07 1.147283 1.401151 1.743454 2.265612 3.101868 4.533647 7.674187
2025-12-14 1.115620 1.366802 1.707465 2.231183 3.079322 4.555698 7.888812
2025-12-21 1.084126 1.331801 1.669383 2.191841 3.046107 4.554803 8.049387
2025-12-28 1.076428 1.329492 1.677878 2.224388 3.135683 4.794064 8.851233
2026-01-04 1.069222 1.327516 1.686576 2.257362 3.227935 5.048901 9.769151
2026-01-11 1.060150 1.322539 1.690555 2.282796 3.308448 5.289625 10.728986
2026-01-18 1.041543 1.303451 1.672979 2.272576 3.323951 5.396076 11.323626
2026-01-25 1.023359 1.284483 1.654953 2.260754 3.335587 5.495263 11.929002